Here it is, Featured Foto Friday, once again. Today, we're on the road at Saratoga Race Course for a weekend of "intuitive statistical analysis," aka, handicapping Thoroughbreds. This week's photo shows Hall of Fame jockey, Jerry Bailey aboard two year-old filly J'Ray in the paddock before today's 4th race at "The Spa."
Roughly 15 minute later, Bailey piloted J'Ray to a 2 1/4 length victory. This filly was paired with Towering Escape, another fine filly also trained by the meet's leading trainer, Todd Pletcher.
The point is, watching the way twenty thousand or so diversely skilled horse players make and back decisions at the racetrack is one of life's real joys. The two Pletcher-trained horses were destined to be crowd favorites from the moment the race's entries were posted. The dilemma facing handicappers is this: will the risk entailed in backing these horses (that is, betting hard earned American currency on their prospects of victory), be adequately compensated by the reward that would be forthcoming in the event one of them is victorious.
In this case, the betting public determined that the chances of either J'Ray or Towering Escape winning this race were so good that a $2 wager on them to win would pay less than even money (less than $2 in addition to your $2 wager). This is what's known in the horseplayer world as a "short favorite."
In this case, the crowd was, indeed, wise. J'Ray won the race. But she rewarded her risk-averse supporters with only $1.20 profit for each $2.00 wager. While backing J'Ray may seem like an obvious decision in retrospect, it is the kind of decision that will often make poor horseplayers out of not so poor ones.
Why?
Because you can't beat the game playing only short favorites. The name of the game in handicapping is finding those instances in which the crowd is convinced that a particular horse/jockey combo "can't miss," and betting against that conventional wisdom.
In the 4th race at Saratoga today, that strategy did not work for yours truly. But it did work on enough other occasions today to call the day a success!
And now, off to a lovely dinner at Lillian's, one of the local quainteries!
Update: Here's a tip for those of you heading to Saratoga: skip Lillian's! But do try last night's, and tomorrow night's, choice, 43 Phila Bistro.
Welcome to our website for you World of Warcraft Gold,Wow Gold,Cheap World of Warcraft Gold,cheap wow gold,buy cheap wow gold,real wow gold,sell wow gold, ... Here wow gold of 1000 gold at $68.99-$80.99 ,World Of Warcraft Gold,buy wow gold,sell world of warcraft gold(wow gold),buy euro gold wow Cheap wow gold,cheapest wow gold store ... buy euro gold wow wow gold--buy cheap wow gold,sell wow gold.welcome to buy cheap wow gold--cheap, easy, wow gold purchasing.World of Warcraft,wow gold Super ... We can have your wow gold,buy wow gold,wow gold game,world of warcraft gold, wow Gold Cheap wow, Cheap wow gold,world of warcraft gold deal,Cheap WOW Gold ... Welcome to our website for you World of Warcraft Gold,Wow Gold,Cheap World of Warcraft Gold,wow gold,buy cheap wow gold,real wow gold,sell wow gold, ... Here wow gold of 1000 gold at $68.99-$80.99,World Of Warcraft Gold,buy wow gold,sell world of warcraft gold(wow gold),buy gold wow lightninghoof instock Cheap wow gold,cheapest wow gold store ... wow gold--buy cheap wow gold,sell wow gold.welcome to buy cheap wow gold--cheap, easy, wow gold purchasing.World of Warcraft,wow gold Super ... Wow gold- Gold for buy gold wow lightninghoof instock EU-Server: ...wow Gold EU: starting from 84,99?; 3000 WoW Gold EU: starting from 119,99?. wow Gold- Leveling Services: ... We can have your wow Gold,buy wow Gold,wow Gold game,wow gold, Cheap wow Gold, Cheap World of Warcraft Gold,world of warcraft gold deal,buy cheap wow gold,Cheap WOW Gold ... Here wow Gold of 1000 gold at $68.99-$80.99,World Of Warcraft Gold,buy wow Gold,sell world of warcraft gold(wow gold),Cheap wow gold,cheapest World of Warcraft Gold store ...
Posted by: xiaoxinwow | March 25, 2007 at 10:14 PM